North Korea...looking for another ass-kicking Seriously? Does Kimmy just wake up and decide to do this crap?
Posted 26 November 2010 - 04:43 PM
They could easily make it look like we are headed for war and it could be another fizzle...but best to be aware I guess.
Posted 26 November 2010 - 04:53 PM
"Everyone instantly jumps the conclusion that the government is out to get us." -- SWAT SAINT
"Bad Duce, bad." -- Ace-014
"Good man, Duce, good man." -- Tryon
"Also accepting female snipers." -- Lt.Col.Vortex
Posted 26 November 2010 - 05:46 PM
Posted 26 November 2010 - 07:39 PM
If/when North Korea finally goes to crap, here's what's going to happen -- now mind you, I mean when they actually start a war. Up until they do, everything is just posturing, even the parts where they bomb people -- they don't care about that. They care about status, which is tied to a quiet internal power struggle that will probably drive them to war before it drives them to collapse. So, if and when that actually happens, here's how I figure it will play out.
1. South Korea is going to handle their invasion singlepoohandedly. It's not that NK's army is small or pathetic -- far from it! They're really FRAGing good at killing crap, given the size of the nation they've got one of the most well-funded militaries in the world. But SK is simply stronger. Force analysis suggests that they'll be able to fend off the assault almost by themselves -- more importantly, they'll be able to hold out until the allies come guns-blazing.
2. The allies are going to come guns-blazing, and oh what allies there will be. The following nations will get in on the action:
A) United States. Ally of South Korea, vested regional interest in protecting South Korea and projecting force. Units are already in place in South Korea and in Japan, as well as significant naval units that can bash it up any old time. Estimated time to combat-effectiveness, two days.
Japan. The Japanese Self-Defense Force, or JSDF, is small but highly capable. Besides their alliance with the United States and South Korea by proxy, Japan has *long* and *deeply* held reasons to go to war with North Korea. Flareup of conflict will drive internal politics to invalidate Article Nine of their constitution, already under contention, and allow them to assist with the invasion of DPRK as a preemptive defense of sovereignty. Also, full militarization is well within reason. USA will support it. Estimated time to combat-effectiveness, one week.
C) China. "You're crazy, China is DPRK's biggest supporter!" Flip the switch that North Korea is playing with, and you'll see exactly what kind of supporter China is. The minute the DPRK's downfall becomes inevitable, China is forced to think in terms of damage control. Prolonged war increases the crisis at their doorstep, and prolonged allegiance to the DPRK increases their liability. When they fall -- and they will fall -- China is going to either stand with the allies, or be responsible for cleaning up the mess. They will choose the former, just as they have chosen to side with the US, Japan, ROK, Thailand, and others involved in the eight-party disarmament talks with the DPRK. China's involvement will strengthen political ties to the USA, and improve their regional influence by demonstrating military power. Expect them to join the war hard. Estimated time to combat-effectiveness, two weeks -- simply because they do not possess the mobility resources of the United States. If they are able to coordinate with us or with the UN/other allies, this timeline will decrease. China will race us to Pyongyang, and they very well might win.
D) An enormous FRAGing UN coalition. Spearheaded either by the UK or by the Russian Federation, and involving just about FRAGing everybody. Probably a German general just for the hell of it. By the time UN units can respond (assuming this is a fast-response situation, and discounting special forces and/or aircraft) with boots on the ground, most of the DPRK's capabilities for resistance will be defeated already. This is not necessarily by design, but it might as well be -- the UN will serve a peacekeeping and rebuilding role primarily, and a combative role secondarily, with exceptions made for prominent powers like the UK and Russia, who have recent modern-combat experience and power projection abilities. Estimated time to combat effectiveness/presence, 3-4 weeks.
Estimated duration of primary conflict, 3-4 weeks.
Estimated duration of occupation by foreign powers, 4-5 years.
Estimated outcomes: China will do whatever it takes to keep refugees from storming their borders, short of (probably) shooting them. Their economy will take a hit directly proportional to the length of the war. China's critical balance of economic development and human-rights progress will be tested. They will ask for economic assistance, and they will receive it. East-West ties will be vastly strengthened. The likelihood of militarized Japan is directly proportional to the outcome of the first weeks of combat. If a single DPRK bomb lands on a Japanese target, the probability goes to 1. Militarized Japan will cause tension in the East-West relationship, but they will have US support and everyone else will need US support as well -- so they'll get over it within a few months. Any additional Chinese militarization also increases the likelihood of subsequent Japanese militarization for regional influential purposes -- it's probably going to happen, let's leave it at that. Russia stands to be the odd-man out, which means they're likely to involve themselves even more heavily than otherwise anticipated. Expect human-rights violations on the north and northwest borders. Ultimately Russia lacks the muscle to butt its way into any diplomatic authority, and will eventually fall at the mercy of the UN and the Sino-US alliance to have any real sway. The ultimate outcome will be a unified Korean peninsula under ROK democracy. China-US ties will reach a new peak. Russia falls out of favor, Japan takes distance, ROK undergoes massive growth and gains immense pride/power, perhaps replaces Japan as next regional power after China.
....but that's just me.